I am a Call Center Director for operations and I have been asked to assist our marketing department in forecasting volumes for a mailing. I know only how many pieces we will be mailing and what % of response we intend to recieve.

I am very familiar with forecasting from volumes (Erlang C). But I am uncertain how to put together a forecast based solely on the mareketing material response rate. Does someone with inbound telemarketing experiance have some insight they can share?

Ok,

Here we go.

To a certain extent Erlang doesn't work in this case.

You will get a spike as the mail hits in the morning 9-10:30,
lunch 12-13:30 and evening 16:30-18:00. The morning one will be
the biggest (60%) followed by the evening (25%) then the lunchtime one
(15%) all those I'd take with a LARGE pinch of salt.

Then

1) Establish the size of the mailing and delivery method

2) Speak to your marketing dept. They will know the expected
response rate. You CANNOT do this yourself.

3) Establish WHEN the mailing will hit over how long etc.

4) Lay this against the uptake rate.

5) I find a day 1-5 65%, 20%, 8%, 5%, 2% split SEEMS to work
for me.

This is all in the UK of course.

HTH

DaveA

Your insight is greatly appreciated. I have searched over the last couple of weeks for Tools/Peers/Resources who could give me validation and/or direction. I appreciate your willingness to help.

I will run a model with your advice.

You're welcome.

The main issue is the fact that a simple change in the demographic of
a mailing can have a massive change in the leads / calls generated.

This is really where your Marketing dept need to look at previous
campaigns. The other issue is on logging the calls the agents need
to really be on the ball with the media / marketing codes, you need

to make sure they're not just using a bucket / junk / generic code.

It won't help you this time but just a simple spreadsheet with

MKT Code: Media Type : Target Demographic : %Uptake : Leads per '000

Will save you hours later down the line.

HTH

DaveA

Misty,
I work in an environment where we send regular marketing campaigns, and one thing i had noticed is that on the first day, usually you will get less response than the second day

In my opinion the reason for this is that whilst you post on monday(assuming you send 1st class), the mail will be generally be delivered tuesday but with the new later delivery time of mail, most people will not actually open the letter until that evening as they will be at work when the letters hit the doormat.

Whilst i used 1st class mail for the example, the principle is the same for any mail out.

Just thought i'd add my tuppence worth

Dave any thoughts?