CallCentreVoice Topic Forecast problem

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Virdol Valentin on 25/5/2007 14:28:04.
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Virdol Valentin
Scheduling Specialist
Vodafone Romania

2 posts
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Forecast problem  [25/5/2007 14:28:04]

Hello,


I've seen your post from CCV and i found that you have a very good overview on a forecast. I have a problem with a forecast in this moment. I have to do a forecasst on calls and stuff needed. I did a forecast until now but i want'it to be more accurate. I use erlang for number o agents, also shrinkage and other measurements. The forecast i realized is breaked in month / weeks/ day and interval of 15 minutes. Also i toked in considaration a day of week factor and number of days from a month...But foreward i have a deviation of 7-9% vs real thing. It could seems that this procent is small but estimated to an ommount of 800 000 calls it's considerable. Could anyone help me with a model or what i have to add to this one i have to make it more accurately? I haven't introduced in it seasonal factor and holiday factor.

Thanks,
vali

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Mohamed Haqqi
Consultant & Call Center Manager
COOKDOOR

20 posts
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Hello  [28/5/2007 02:05:53]

Hello Virdol,

With respect to Erlang, first of all it's generally used for calculating base staff and predicting occupancy, turnk load, delay time, etc. but sometimes it does have some assumptions like:

1. Assumes no abandoned calls or busy signals.
2. Assumes "steady state" arrival or that traffic does not increase or decrease beyond random fluctuation within the time period.
3. Assumes you have a fixed number of staff handling calls throughout the time period.
4. Assumes that all agents within a group can handle the calls presented to the group.

Regarding to your question, The forecasting process is both an art and a science. It’s an art because we are, after all, predicting the future. And the accuracy of your forecast will be due in some part to your judgment and experience. But it’s also a science - a step-by-step mathematical process that takes past history and uses it to predict future events. A working knowledge of these specialized statistical techniques, along with a pencil, paper, and calculator will get you through the process. And for those of you that have workforce management software in place that automates the forecasting process, don’t think that you’re off the hook! It’s just as critical for you to understand these calculations as it is for someone that’s doing them by hand. It’s important you understand the numbers coming from the software tool to verify accuracy of results and perhaps more importantly, explain the numbers to management. So even if you have tools to help, learning the fundamentals of forecasting is worthwhile.

There are many factors that influence the call center’s workload and the smart workforce planner will have a process in place that considers all the these factors in the forecasting process.

Think about all the different areas of your organization that influence the calls you receive. The most obvious one is the marketing department who has tremendous impact of your work based on the sales and marketing promotions they do. Hopefully you have a formal communications process in place to hear about marketing plans well ahead of the actual event so they can be built into the forecasting assumptions.

Make sure you consider all the other pertinent areas as well. Will the billing department’s new invoice format cause a flood of calls? How about sales forecasts from the Sales VP that can help you plan staff based on the new customer account base a year from now? Is the fulfillment area changing the way they package and ship products that may cause an increase (or decrease!) in your call volume? It’s critical that you communicate regularly with all these influencers of call center workload as you prepare and fine-tune the forecast.

Once the forecast is in place, then you’re ready for the next step – calculating staff requirements to meet service goals.

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Mohamed Haqqi
Consultant & Call Center Manager
COOKDOOR

20 posts
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Twelve ways  [28/5/2007 02:11:17]

Twelve ways to improve the predictability of the workload are summarized below. Each is outside the realm of what is usually thought to be the forecasting process. Yet, each is essential to an accurate forecast.

1) Use ACD modes consistently. Each rep has an impact on the components of handling time (talk time and after call work) and, therefore, on the data that will be used in forecasting and planning for future callloads. When the queue is building, it can be tempting to postpone some after call work (wrap-up) that should be done at the time of the call. This skews reports, causes planning problems and may lead to increased errors. An important and ongoing training issue is to define ahead of time which types of work should follow calls and which types of work can wait.

2) Emphasize quality. Supervisors and reps can feel that the pressure of a backed-up queue forces them to make tough tradeoffs between seemingly competing objectives, such as service level and quality. However, although service level and quality seem to be at odds in the short term, poor quality will negatively impact service level over time by contributing to repeat calls and other forms of waste and rework. This will contribute to workload volatility and inconsistencies. The emphasis should be on handling each call correctly, regardless of how backed up the queue is.

3) Avoid callbacks. Many call centers have discovered the hard way that giving callers the option to leave a message when the queue gets backed up often backfires. For example, you may call back only to get perpetual busies, ring-no-answers, voice mail or somebody else in the person's work area ("sorry, she stepped away for a moment"). And in the meantime, the caller may call the call center again.

A minority of call centers do have success with a callback strategy, particularly when reps have to do some amount of preparation in order to handle the calls, or when the center is flooded with calls because of a once-in-awhile occurrence. Still, most call centers find that, in the end, it makes more sense to handle the inbound calls when they arrive.

4) Anticipate and manage growth. Do an analysis of the likely impact of growth on your call center. This often takes the form of a chart or document that illustrates the projected costs and time-frames of growing the call center in increments, such as ten percent growth in call load, twenty percent growth, thirty percent growth, and so on. The document should illustrate required lead-times and key decision points associated with things like additional workstations, new or upgraded equipment, or a new facility (see Notes, January 1996).

5) Develop better ties with other departments. This should be an ongoing effort in any call center. Most of what happens in a call center is caused by something going on outside the center. The forecast is doomed if strong ties with other departments don't exist. There's no substitute for knowing well in advance when marketing is running the next campaign, when manufacturing is releasing the new products and when finance is redesigning the terms and conditions.

6) Make forecasting a collaborative process. Involve supervisors and lead reps in the forecasting process, on a rotating basis. This yield two positive results: 1) they will better understand the pulse of the call-load and what's behind the schedules (and will often adhere to them better as a result), and 2) because they are continually dealing with callers, they have their "ear to the ground" and can help anticipate caller reactions to changes and developments in the marketplace and the organization's services.

7) Track absenteeism. If you are part of a network of call centers or if you have overflow routines established between call center groups, absenteeism in one area has a direct impact on the workload in another. It is important to anticipate absenteeism in advance and, contrary to conventional wisdom, it is reasonably predictable. For example, in work groups with typical Monday through Friday schedules, unscheduled absenteeism tends to be higher on Monday and Friday than the other days of the week. Have someone track absenteeism, and look for patterns.

8) Anticipate the factors affecting caller tolerance. The seven factors of caller tolerance include motivation, availability of substitutes, competition's service level, level of expectations, time available, who's paying for the call and human behavior. Putting some thought into these factors goes a long ways towards anticipating caller behavior.

9) Track and manage non-phone activities. Forecasting non-phone activities such as research and correspondence is a challenge. Many call center managers, used to having detailed information on the call-load, long for similar reports on non-phone activities. Fortunately, as with inbound calls, these activities often occur in predictable patterns, and usually have a strong correlation to other forecasts, such as the inbound call-load, units of sales or number of customers (and they are usually a lot less time-sensitive than incoming calls). Investigate the tracking capabilities in your ACD, forecasting/staffing software and computer database. As a last resort, track these activities manually, as they occur.

10) Better educate callers. The inbound call-load tends to be less erratic when callers are aware of other service alternatives (e.g. services via faxback, voice response units or the World Wide Web). Billing inserts, focused advertisements, newsletter articles, and customer support sections in user manuals are all examples of ways to better educate callers on the service alternatives available.

11) Minimize transferred and escalated calls. An excessive number of transferred and escalated calls will wreck havoc on the workload forecast. Utilize quality improvement tools, such as flow charts and cause and effect diagrams (see Service Level Newsletter, Notes column, May 1995) to address root causes. Common problems include insufficient training, insufficient authority, incomplete or missing database information and poor call routing design (e.g. calls often end up in the wrong place to begin with).

12) Accomplish as much as possible during talk time. When tasks related to inbound calls can be completed with the caller still on the line, errors are usually reduced. Further, the time reps would otherwise spend in more discretionary (and less predictable) work modes, such as after call work or auxiliary modes, is minimized.

I hope this information is helpful to you.

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Steve Helm
Planning
Outsourcing

84 posts
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Virdol  [29/5/2007 14:21:53]

Mohammed makes some good points but misses a quite obvious one.
What is it that drives people to contact your call centre, if it is sales then you should speak with your marketing teams to understand the activities they are involved in to generate revenue, this could be mail shots, inserts into magazines, TV advertising etc. Once this is understood then your contact forecast should be realtively straightforward to calculate based on an expected nett revenue per call, this should take into account how many people may not be credit worthy.
If your call centre is service based then again there will be a trigger that prompts people to call you, none delivery of goods, bills posted etc. Once understood these can be calculated based on history as a ratio of sales calls.
To calculate a high level forecast is quite easy based on these factors, I disgaree with Mohammed that it is a science, it is not a precise science, forecasting is guessing albeit educated guessing based on the factors above and what has happened historically.
With regards to erlang assumptions as described by Mohammed, it is only as good as the data you feed it, the assumptions are yours and not erlang's.

Forecasting is about knowing your business drivers, customer behaviours and practice.

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Dave Appleby
Resource Analyst
Healthcare Insurance

1443 posts
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Mohammed  [30/5/2007 07:50:25]

Please if you're going to post as above
can you cite the whole article you're
cutting and pasting from.

Otherwise we have issues with 'Fair use'

BPO INDIA LINK

Regards

DaveA

{On behalf of the CCV team}

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Virdol Valentin
Scheduling Specialist
Vodafone Romania

2 posts
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Forecast  [30/5/2007 12:38:16]

Thanks for your reply's. I take in consideration marketing campaines and a customer forecast. But my problem is how to be more accurate in forecast. In this moment in my forecast i use erlang formula for agent's where i apply shrinkage/overhead and aht for tier. I forgot to mention that the call's are splitted in tiers for customer "value". The forecast i made until now it's made starting from the forecast of customers where i apply a customer/call rate to forecast call's/ month. This calls are moved forward to day after using a day of week factor ( based on the ideea that customer's calls more in days like monday and less in saturday and sundays) i managed to take this call's to week where i split them in interval of 15 minutes. With this call i have to forecast also a service level target that i could touch with the available of agents. But with all of this i have errors with forecast about 6% (forecast vs real). could you tell me what more i could do to minimize these errors? What else to take in consideration or other methods to forecast the requested of agents or calls?

Thanks a lot,
Vali

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Virdol Valentin
Forecast
Xz

3 posts
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Ideas  [26/7/2007 10:18:58]

Any new ideas regarding this problem?

Thanks you,
Vali

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